A Brief

Finally I had a chance today to give a briefing when I represented my group in one of the exercise. There were altogether six groups. This exercise is about Strategic Planning Guide for Resource Management. For the purpose of the exercise, a fictitious country called Drmacia was used with the country of Madland and Hinterland as belligerent nations. My briefing was accepted well and I was quite happy about that. The text of my briefing is listed below:

STARTEGIC ISSUES

• How important are these strategic issues to the MoD and to Drmecia?

• All are important because they have an impact on our national interests. However, military dimension is not predominant in all of them. Problems with illegal immigrants and taxation have economic, social and diplomatic dimensions.

• What is the relative importance of the strategic issues?

• The most important is the military threat from Madland, followed by the incursion by Hinterland. These strategic issues have a direct impact on state of Drmecia’s national sovereignty.

• Are there strategic issues that are not as timely as others?

• Urgent issues are; Problems with Madland and Hinterland; and not so urgent is smuggling (impact Government both in medium and long term)

• What are the potential connections among the strategic issues?

• There are linkages between incursion by Hinterland and illegal immigration and smuggling;

• Furthermore, converging interests could lead to an alliance between Madland and Hinterland with dire consequences to Drmecia

POLICY AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS

• Are there existing policies, strategies, or plans that affect our ability to act?

• Yes. These are (1) Defensive posture of Drmecia; (2) No strategy of alliances adopted and (3) No effective structure of jointness practiced by Drmecian armed forces. These three weaknesses have direct affect to Drmecia ability to act.

• What resource constraints should we be aware of?

• Firstly, budgets are limited with provision for increase (3.5%); Secondly, the budget for the Navy is too low to be effective especially in defending the vast defending EEZ; thirdly, the Army has limited number of personnel and is also considered “top heavy”; and lastly, the procurement budget is too low as compared to operational expenditure. It stands at only 10% of MoD budget.

• Are there strategic issues that significantly affect our current and future resources?

• Yes. Firstly, reduced revenues as a result of prevalent smuggling and illegal fishing resulted with reduced budgets;

• Secondly, illegal immigration of Hrmites could strain budget and other social needs and also can create disharmony amongst military personnel (Hrmites and Drmites)

• What other possible barriers exist to realizing our goals/objectives?

• Firstly, the existence of Hrmite Liberation Front;
• Secondly, limited infrastructures (Drmecia has only 1 airport, 2 sea ports and 1 highway)
• Thirdly, the possible increase of corruption and crime
• What types of risk should be considered in our capabilities analysis?

• Firstly, is an invasion by Hinterland with a consequence of the loss of Drmecian territory

• Secondly, is a preemptive strike by Madland resulting in battle damage to infrastructure, i.e. buildings, seaports, airports and communications and also loss of control of the EEZ that translates to loss of potential revenues to Dremacia.

• Thirdly, is an alliance between Hinterland and Madland that can have a consequence of possible attack from two fronts

• Can we quantify the risk and how?

• Yes and No

• Invasion by Hinterland – dimension of area loss, number of displaced citizens and loss of GDP.

• Preemptive Strike by Madland – Cost of reconstruction of infrastructure and rehabilitation and loss of GDP

• Alliance between Madland and Hinterland – Not quantifiable.

• Are there cost-risk tradeoffs of concern to us?

• We currently know only the risks and not the costs, but we would like to know the costs too
• Where and how much risk do you think is tolerable and why?

• Invasion by Hinterland – Up to 30 km inside our border as there are no major interests within 30 km from border

• Preemptive strike by Madland – Can accept only low damage as our city can sustain that and we can prevent a second wave of attack of Madland

• Alliance between Hinterland and Madland – low probability (would be worst case, but we have no information yet)

• How do the desired capabilities help us address risk?

• Invasion by Hinterland – firstly by increasing warning and reaction time; secondly by improving mobility, e.g. having Quick Reaction Force.

• Preemptive strike by Madland – firstly by increasing warning and reaction time; secondly by investing in naval capabilities

• Alliance between Hinterland and Madland – by enhancing diplomatic arrangements

CAPABILITIES DETERMINATION

• What capabilities gaps have been identified?

• Invasion by Hinterland – The size of both armed forces (Hinterland Army = 60’000 vs Drmecia Army = 30’000), surveillance capability, mobility (having QRF)

• Preemptive Strike by Madland – Surveillance capabilities, Naval and air force capabilities, number of seaports and air bases.

• Alliance between Hinterland and Madland – Drmecia has no ally

• Are there capabilities that span across the strategic issues?

• Yes. Surveillance capability

• What portfolio of capabilities do we need to address the gaps in the short and long term?

• Firstly, surveillance systems; secondly, increase army and navy effectiveness (quality vs. quantity); thirdly, building more air force bases

• How might we move from now to our desired future capabilities?

• Investment in procurement and restructure the armed forces (jointness)

• How can we measure our impact on our objective?

• Break down objectives in measurable sub-objectives and tasks (e.g. time to scramble aircraft)